November 18, 2008

Damn Yankees? You bet…

I certainly won’t be the only scribe writing on behalf of a club that will be hard pressed to sign a premier front of the rotation starter, because the New York Yankees are throwing more than their allowance out there to build a strong squad for that new stadium you may have read about.

We’ve seen the Jake Peavy saga cool off considerably, with the Braves publicly stated that they will being “moving on” to fill their needs. At least for the time being. Numerous reports have shown that the Yankees are going to be setting the bar quite high when it comes to Grade-A starters. Take their reported offer to CC Sabathia for example – 6-years and $140 million. How do you think the Milwaukee Brewers feel about that? Not so great, but this is nothing new when it comes to the Yankee way.

Maybe the folks in Wisconsin haven’t been affected directly by the Yankees persuing their free agents, but you can rest assured that all of baseball has felt the effects of big money Bronx deals. You can chalk the Braves up for one tough off-season when it comes to bringing in their new starting pitchers.

The Braves have lost free agent players to the Yankees in the past five years, including Gary Sheffield, Jarrett Wright and Kyle Farnsworth. This year, they will be competing for what looks to be A.J Burnett and Derek Lowe. Reports have right-hander Ryan Dempster heading back to the Chicago Cubs for a 4-year $52 million deal. If you do the math between the Sabathia offer and the Dempster deal, you are starting to get a pretty good idea what the years and the money on Burnett will be. Throw in the fact that he can openly shop that 4-year $54 million deal that Toronto had on the table. It boils down to the simple fact that every agent has to love: If you can get the Yankees involved then you can make your client a rich(er) man.

Never to be outbid, even when they are bidding solely against themselves, the Yankees have taken to the offensive and are preparing an offer that rests somewhere around 5-years and $80 million for Burnett’s services. When reading that the Steinbrenner boys plan to follow in their father’s footsteps of setting the bar rather high when it comes to player contracts, it became apparent that not only were the Yanks going to be players in the free-agent market but that they may well end up owning several of the shiniest pieces this off-season.

The Yankees have taken this route for years, signing free-agents to big deals, rewarding their stars with big deals, trading the farm and taking on big contracts of stars that other clubs seek to unload. Maybe all this started when they purchased Babe Ruth? None of this necessarily should make them the real life pirates of baseball (all apologies to the Pittsburgh franchise). The city and the organization simply likes to win and they have the money to make happen more quickly that every other team in baseball. Put those two things together and it always leads to interesting storylines and sometimes whimsical back-and-forth fun. It also serves to make them easily hateable for many. Hard economic times or not, the Yankees are going to be spending aplenty this winter.

So what does all this mean for Atlanta?

Having somewhat put the lid on the Peavy discussions (believe that if you like), the Braves will have the tough task of assigning a value to their future and signing one of these star pitchers. I’m starting to think that if Dempster signs with the Cubs, Sabathia and Burnett sign with the Yankees, and Lowe opts to go back to Boston (for example), the Braves will have to get creative via trade or start kicking the tires on Ben Sheets.

It could play out the way I just outlined. Or it could turn back around, leading the Braves and Padres back to the table to complete that long-running trade rumor, and Burnett or Lowe to different pastures. Atlanta could end up finding an entirely different trading partner to boost the rotation with. That’s the fun of the the off-season.

Who’s ready for those Winter Meetings?

Till next time,

G-Mc

November 13, 2008

Deal or no deal?

Sheez. Somebody had to jump the gun and announce the trade was in the final stages and go and have all of us thinking we would have a big day to blog about. Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline wrote a blog last night that had the Padres approaching Peavy to waive his no-trade clause and accept a deal to the Atlanta Braves. Based upon the fact that absolutely no one else was reporting it, and no one I knew had mentioned the trade being a done deal, I knew that it might just be getting our hopes up.

I’m just ready to see this thing happen… because I’m impatient, if nothing else.

Look, the deal may happen yet, and I have a feeling we will see the Braves coming away with their ace when it’s all said and done. Miller’s piece had the Braves giving up the long rumored package of Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, either Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes and perhaps a fourth player. The new information was that righty reliever Blaine Boyer or one or two minor league left-handers (Jeff Locke among them) were on the table as well.

So where did all this rumor about catcher Tyler Flowers being in the deal come from?

Ah, thank you Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports and RotoWorld for coming to my rescue. When I thought all was lost. Here’s the rumor on Flowers.

The excitement of the Arizona Fall League has been in full force when it comes to the performance of two Braves prospects. Tommy Hanson, who has been wowing anybody who sees him pitch, and the heavy-hitting Flowers. The latter of these two is a relative new comer on the radar for many Braves fans, but I’m here to tell you that he has some serious power.

Last spring, I watched Flowers put on his batting practice displays that wowed every single teammate. Literally, heads turned as Flowers deposited baseballs into the far reaches of every spring training facility he visited. Braves beat writer Mark Bowman recorded the great first impression Flowers made on Braves manager Bobby Cox in just his first big league camp.

All that said, I’m happy with the framework rumored to be going in this deal. It’s not nearly as prospect laden as the Mark Teixeira deal and could net the Braves one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for as long as five years. You see, that was my fundamental problem with the Teixeira trade two seasons ago. There was no security that Atlanta would be able to retain Tex beyond 2008. And sure enough, a king’s ransom was paid for the eventual acquisition of Casey Kotchman.

This Peavy deal is a long term commitment to winning that I believe, among other things, will attract other free agent pitchers to the Braves based on the fact they are attempting to build a contender. One central theme of any trades the Braves make will be, does it make our team better in the long term (there’s that phrase again)? If the answer is yes, expect to see the deal happen. If the answer is now, then expect the Braves to pursue pitchers in the free agent market to check those off-season needs off the list.

Losing a shortstop like Escobar is bittersweet, but I think the Braves have scouted and developed enough players in their day to weigh the pros and cons of letting the young Cuban infielder go in favor of the 2007 Cy Young Award winner. Atlanta has to give in order to get, and this package centered around Escobar seems to be far and away better than anything the Chicago Cubs have managed to muster on their own. Throwing in too many other prospects would take Atlanta right back to the Teixeira trap though, so Wren is going to be cautious not to go overboard just to make a deal happen.

If this trade goes down, Atlanta will then turn its attention to signing at least one more top of the rotation arm from a list that is headlined by A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and Ryan Dempster. Of the three, Burnett provides the impact arm that would combine with Peavy to give the Braves a dynamic1-2 punch that is built for the post-season. He’ll probably cost at least $17 million a year too.

The fun doesn’t stop there, as shortstop would be in need of an upgrade following the potential Peavy deal. Free agents Rafael Furcal and Edgar Renteria have both spent time in Atlanta and make a certain amount of sense. Furcal’s tools are far better than Renteria’s at this stage of the game, but Renteria has shown himself to be a better all around performer in the NL. There will also be a major cost differential between the two as well. Of course, that’s not a foregone conclusion by any means. The Braves could seek a trade or go after a completely different shortstop altogether.

Once the first piece falls, it will allow the Braves to start making other moves. Now we wait to see if Peavy is the first piece or if the free-agent market will produce the opening transaction of the off-season.

Till next time,

G-Mc

November 13, 2008

And now for the best Braves deals…

When last we left off, we were looking at some of my least favorite trades from the past 20 years or so. There’s going to be one deal that goes a year outside my little bubble, but it’s not my fault that I keep getting older but this trade looks better seemingly every season. Heck, it might be one of the best trades in baseball history.

We’ve seen the dealing of Jermaine Dye, Adam Wainwright and a boatload of young talents for Mark Teixeira, but now let’s take a good look at some of the deftest maneuvers the Braves have pulled in the trading game. Here are my top 5 favorite Braves trades of the last 20 years:

5. Tony Castillo & Joe Roa to the New York Mets for Alejandro Pena

This is the kind of trade that every team looking for bullpen help in late August wishes they could pull off. Pena’s veteran presence was inserted into a bullpen that was in dire need of a stopper, and boy did it work. Pena responded by stabilizing the late innings in September and continuing to slam the door in October. Going 2-0 with 11 saves in 15 games, Pena’s presence helped the Braves stave off the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the first 14-consecutive Division titles. He made a good enough impression to be brough back to share in the joy of the Braves World Series victory in 1995.

4. Jimmy Kremers & Keith Morrison to the Montreal Expos for Otis Nixon & Boi Rodriguez

I still miss the days of Otis Nixon and Deion Sanders seemingly running amok at the top of the Braves line-up. The Nixon trade was a superb deal in the spring of ’91 for Atlanta, giving them to have a true lead-off hitter and allowing Bobby Cox to move Ron Gant and his 30 homers into the middle of the order. Kremers never played in the majors again after his 29 game stint with Atlanta in 1990, but Nixon set a franchise single season steals record and was an important part of the Braves success in the early 90s. Then there was the matter of a certain catch during the pennant drive in 1992. Ask Andy Van Slyke if he remembers hat one.

Watch the catch for yourself by Clicking Here

3. Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas & Juan Cruz to the Oakland Athletics for Tim Hudson

I remember seeing this trade scroll across the bottom line during Sportscenter and wondering just how John Schuerholz pulled it off. The Braves acquire one of Oakland’s famed Big Three aces, and gave away a flash in the pan outfielder, a middle reliever and a solid pitching prospect. None of the three were serious pieces of Atlanta’s future and it still boggles the mind to think that Oakland would trade a pitcher the ilk of Hudson for that package. Consequently, none of the three figured in Oakland’s plans either. Meyer was waived this winter after struggling to make good on his promise. The A’s dealt Cruz away, but poor Chuck Thomas turned back into a pumpkin and has not appeared in the Bigs since batting .109 in 30 games in 2005.

2. Melvin Nieves, Vince Moore & Donnie Elliot to the San Diego Padres for Fred McGriff

Want to know how the Braves held off the San Francisco in an exciting down the wire pennant race in 1993? Well you can thank the San Diego Padres donation of Fred McGriff as the chief reason Atlanta caught fire and grabbed their third straight NL West crown. McGriff served as a part of the 1995 World Series winners and always provided the clean-up bat for four seasons in a Braves uniform. This trade was a big part of the Padres fire sale, that still to this day comes up whenever a team puts two or more stars the trading block. Too bad the trade of Mark Teixeira did not bring the same kind of return for Atlanta, because the price was much more than San Diego acquired for McGriff.

1. Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for John Smoltz

The trade that perhaps started it all. Well this trade and some excellent scouting and drafting I’d say. I pull this trade into the 20 year mark despite its 1987 deal date because Bobby Cox was the general manager who pulled it off. In other words, it’s a trade that helped build the core of the team. It netted a future Hall of Famer and gave the Detroit Tigers a boost since Alexander kicked into full gear after his trade (9-0, 1.53 ERA in 11 starts). Too bad the boost ended with Alexander getting shelled in his two post-season assignments (0-2, 10.00 ERA). Smoltz has become more than the Braves could have ever expected, and the foundation of the team for the better part of two decades.

Well those are my favorite deals, at least the last 20 years… or so.

Till next time,

G-Mc

November 7, 2008

I’ll trade you, but no take-backs!

As those that have followed the Braves rise to the top and subsequent slide back to the middle of the pack over the past two decades, one would notice that many of the key acquisitions during this time have come via the trade. It is a part of baseball that garners anticipation, excitement and sometimes disappointment for an organization and its fans.

I thought it would be fun to look at some of my favorite Braves trades, and some of my not-so-favorites, because we may have some trading fun to talk about here in the near future. I always like to hear the bad news first, so I can enjoy the good news a littler more… or at least temper my expectations. Here goes:

Top 5 Least Favorite Braves Trades:

5. Ryan Klesko, Bret Boone & Jason Shiell to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Reggie Sanders, Quilvio Veras & Wally Joyner

Sanders was utterly terrible in his one season with the Braves while Veras tore an ACL and never appeared in the majors again after Atlanta. Despite there being no way to know these things would happen, Klesko, just 28 at the time, was a part of three World Series team and a product of the system. Boone had been the big off-season acquisition just one season earlier, so why trade these central pieces coming off a World Series appearance?

4. Jermaine Dye & Jamie Walker to the Kansas City Royals for Michael Tucker & Keith Lockhart

Here’s one where you can just say,”what if?” What if the Braves had held on to Jermaine Dye? Would he be the same player he became in Kansas City after some struggles? He’d more than likely have contributed at least as much as Tucker (the 10th overall pick in the ’92 draft) did in his two season with Atlanta. Lockhart proved to have the most staying power, lasting six seasons as a chief reserve and pinch-hitter. Hardly an even up swap for Dye and his 286 homers since 1997.

3. Adam Wainwright and Ray King to the St. Louis Cardinals for J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero

This is one reason the Braves find themselves looking for two front-line starting pitchers this off-season. J.D. Drew has moved on to greener pastures twice since having a career year for Atlanta in 2004. And I’m just going to say it now, Drew was not the second coming of Mickey Mantle. All Wainwright has done is prove the scouts that signed him right, developing into a staff ace by the age of 25. Too bad he doing so for the St. Louis Cardinals.

2. David Justice and Marquis Grissom to the Cleveland Indians for Kenny Lofton and Alan Embree

This is the ultimate in head-shakers. I couldn’t fathom the logic as a teenager and I still struggle to find anyone who would do this deal. Granted, Lofton was the ultimate lead-off hitter in 1997 and not the rent-a-player of the past seven or eight years, but still. Justice, who’s homer gave the Braves their lone World Series title of the 90s, was coming off an injury-plagued season but was still a potent middle of the order threat. Grissom was a consummate professional and still, in my opinion, every bit the center fielder Lofton ever was… and then some. To make matters worse, all three men would be playing in the same outfield in 1998… when Lofton signed a free-agent contract with Cleveland. Ouch. Atlanta did get 86 appearances out of Embree though. Heck of a silver lining.

1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones and Neftali Feliz to the Texas Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay

We have not even seen this trade bear fruit for the Texas Rangers, but it may be the deal that just keeps on getting worse for Atlanta. Teixeira was dealt away for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek almost a year to the day later. Would you do that prospect buffet deal for Kotchman? Me neither. Of all the deals I’ve covered here, this is a trade that simply should have never been made. Teixeira turned down an 8-year $140 million extension from the Rangers and I would have to say that common sense logic would dictate the Braves would have to pony-up even more to keep him. Mahay bounced to Kansas City for a richer deal than the Braves wanted to give him, so the Braves really came out of this deal having seriously depleted their rich farm system for a calender year of Teixeira and 30 appearances from a 36-year old left-hander.

In Closing…

The Braves may not have known that Teixeira had already turned down that extension, but this trade was unable to push Atlanta in the play-offs. Maybe it was just all the poor luck of injuries this season that forced Frank Wren‘s hand when it came to trading Teixeira. Maybe it was Scott Boras and his hope of a $200 million pay-day for his client that forced the deal. If it underscores anything, it is that there are no promises in the game in this day and age. Even a player who spent his college years in Atlanta wants what he has coming. That’s why Boras claims a nice finder’s fee for that big contract Tex has coming.

So who is ready for a big trade this off-season?

Up next, my Top-5 Favorite Braves trades of the past 20 years.

Till then,

G-Mc

October 23, 2008

More award winning predictions (NL-style)…

The start of the World Series reminded me that I have just a few short days to predict my NL Award winners. Otherwise, I will find myself wrapping the actual winners or trying to convince people that I really knew “he was going to win that!” I’ll stick with beating the clock.

National League Most Valuable Player

Albert Pujols – Maybe I’m just trying to predict this guy takes home the trophy because there is a very good argument that we owe him a few of those that went to that Bonds guy. Regardless, Pujols has assaulted opposing pitchers since the first day he stepped in the box for the St. Louis Cardinals. Stat-line please….

AVG

RBI

OBP

SLG

.357

148

524

100

187

116

.462

.653

It’s hard to imagine a player who started off a career any hotter that Pujols. A near win for the NL batting title, in addition to be among the Major League leaders in home runs, RBI and of course running away with the best OPS (1.114) in the senior circuit are all reasons that Pujols does what Ryan Howard could not. Maybe my entire argument for Pujols as the best hitter in the National League leads me to vote for him, simply because he does his thing every year… and he’s more than a one trick pony. I smell a segway.

Runner Up: Ryan Howard – Yes, the big Philly first baseman lead the majors in homers (48) and RBI (146), and turned in a monster September that helped the Phillies grab the NL East flag. BUT, I can’t see how the 199 strikeouts (for a second straight season I might add) is an MVP kind of stat. I’d argue that if you take away Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and that supporting cast, then Howard’s ability to produce is diminished immensely. It’s hard to say that Howard is more valuable to the Phillies than Utley in my book. The .251 batting average and iron glove defense doesn’t exactly win me over, either.

Here are a few other things while I’m on the topic: Howard finished sixth in the NL in slugging percentage (.543) despite his monster homer total. How about a 47th place finish in on base percentage (.339)? If you add the two together, you find a hitter who is nestled between Andre Ethier and Brad Hawpe. That’s hardly MVP-caliber company.

National League Cy Young Award

Tim Lincecum – This kid, yeah, KID, is flat out awesome. Breezing through the minor leagues and cutting his teeth with the Giants last season, Lincecum established a degree of dominance that was not matched by any other pitcher in the National League. Don’t believe me? I’ll show you:

W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
18	5	2.62	34	33	2	1	227	84	265	1.17

I’m looking at all the other statistical accomplishments of more veteran hurlers, like Johan Santana and the Arizona win-machine Brandon Webb. Even guys like Ryan Dempster and Roy Oswalt ending up having quality seasons, but there was little to convince me that Lincecum didn’t embody everything that the Cy Young Award has come to be known for. A season of dominance.

Runner Up: Johan Santana – I’d say the trade for Santana may have been the only thing that kept the Mets in the race the season. Managerial changes, injuries to John Maine and Orlando Hernandez, seeing Pedro Martinez continue to devolve, Oliver Perez coming back to earth, losing Billy Wagner…. I could go on and on. The bottom line is, Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA, 206 K) should have won 20 games last season, were in not for some blown saves in what became a volatile Mets bullpen. There is plenty of reason to expect more of the same from the Mets ace as they move across the street.

National League Rookie of the Year

Geovany Soto – The Cubs have themselves a solid force behind the plate in young Mr. Soto. While breaking into the league this season, Soto showed a mastery behind the dish as well as when he had the bat in his hands:

AVG

RBI

OBP

SLG

.285

141

494

141

.364

.504

Were it not for our own Brian McCann here in Atlanta, Soto would have been leading all catchers in most offensive categories. Second to McCann in both doubles and SLG, Soto tied his Atlanta counterpart with 23 homers and finished nine RBI’s off the pace of Benjie Molina‘s lead. I’d say his season was by in large a tremendous success. Is this only the beginning?

Runner up: Jair Jurrjens – In a season that was marked by notable injury after notable injury in the Braves rotation, Jurrjens held his spot from bell to bell. And what a first full season it was. Coming over in a trade from the Detroit Tigers, the Braves installed a 13-game winner and nearly 200 innings into the rotation, when all they were expecting was a man to audition for the fifth spot in the rotation last spring.

National League Manager of the Year

Lou Piniella – We now know how the story ended this year, but Sweet Lou wasn’t to blame for the under-whelming performances of his starting pitchers in the post-season. Yes, he had the big payroll and the star-laden team, but Piniella brings a fire and definite leadership to the fold as the skipper of the Cubs. He’s got as good a shot as anyone to help this team break that dreaded curse. You know, the one that was all but history this year.

There you have it, all the winners I can give you from the National League. Anybody agree or disagree with those? I’d love to hear it.

Till next time,

G-Mc

October 17, 2008

Time to hand out the hardware… (AL Winners)

The close of each season is a great time to reflect. When game 162 goes final, it’s another year in the books. There’s no doubt in my mind that 2008 was a season unlike any other, for a host of storylines and pennant races that made it an historic season. Now we get to focus on what players defined the season and make a few award-winning predictions. Here are the American League’s lucky recipients.

American League Most Valuable Player

Dustin Pedroia – While you can make the point that the line-up certainly helps, you must also take a close look at the diminutive second baseman and notice one important factor. He can flat out hit. Just look at this stat line:

AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
.326	157	653	118	213	54	2	17	83	20	.376	.493

No, he isn’t going to lead the league in homers and RBI, but I’d give him a fighting chance at a slew of other categories. Those 20 stolen bases come against only one time being caught, so well rounded would be a great way to sum up Pedroia’s game. While the little man doesn’t always get his due, I believe 2008 may be a year that line of though gets thrown right out the window.

Runner Up: Josh Hamilton – It’s probably one of the greatest redemption stories in all of sports. And it is also one that is still being written on a daily basis. Overcoming personal demons to become a one-man wrecking crew for the up and coming Texas Rangers, Hamilton lead the AL with 130 and just five homers off the pace with 32. Speaking of homers, I don’t know too many people that will be forgetting that showcase Hamilton provided in Yankee Stadium during the All-Star festivities.

American League Cy Young Award

Cliff Lee – There are candidates who enter each season with the potential to take home the Cy Young award, whisking through the season and cutting down opponents on the way to a 20-win season. If I’d asked you to compile a list of these names last March, then I seriously doubt the inclusion of Cliff Lee on anybody’s manifest.

Then out of nowhere, Lee climbs off the scrap heap and back into the Indians plans for the season and well beyond. Without boring you with any further anecdotal quips about reclamation projects, here is Lee’s work this season:

W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	BB	SO	WHIP
22	3	2.54	31	31	4	2	223.1	34	170	1.11

So maybe I will insert those tales of woe that defined Lee’s 2007 now. This amazing Cy Young season comes just one year after he found himself back in the minor leagues and saddled with a 5-8 record and a 6.29 ERA. Refinements to his mechanics and the ability to attack the strike zone can be heralded as the top reasons for the renaissance that occurred here. Lee walked just 34 batters this season as opposed to 36 in 97.1 innings a year ago. His performance made it easier for the Tribe to trade away last year’s Cy Young award winner, CC Sabathia.

Runner Up: Francisco Rodriguez – I guess 62 save seasons just don’t go as far as they used to. What am I talking about?! That record setting effort certainly isn’t lost on this humble baseball scribe, but K-Rod’s work doesn’t come as a complete shocker like Lee. In other words, his established track record of ninth inning dominance made him a prime candidate to take a shot at Bobby Thigpen’s record. Well, he can check that one off his list now. Besides, that saves record is going to make him a very rich man this off-season, with or without a Cy Young trophy.

American League Rookie of the Year

Evan Longoria – This guy is going to be a superstar. With the emergence of the Ray as a force what was perhaps baseball’s toughest division to win (if your team isn’t located in Boston or New York), Longoria will serve as Tampa Bay’s version of David Wright. Who knows, he might even be better. Stat line, please:

AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG
.272	122	448	67	122	31	2	27	85	7	.343	.531

Runners Up: Jacoby Ellsbury & Alexei Ramirez

Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon – Was there any question about this one? The Play-offs have been a great time to catch up with the stories that Maddon and the Rays next goal was supposed to be finishing about the .500 mark. I’d say the boys from Tampa Bay can set a new goal next season. How about repeating as AL East Champions? It truly came from nowhere, but the mind behind the Rays’ success deserves all the kudos in the world for this transformation. The cast of amazing young talent may be the power driving this post-season run, but the man behind the wheel did an amazing job this season.

Tune in for the National League next time.

Till then,

G-Mc

September 26, 2008

Swing and a miss!

When you hear somebody mention 200 strikeouts being achieved, usually you think of a pitcher who is hitting a milestone marker for excellence in a particular season. Some guys even do it as a annual right of passage (i.e. John Smoltz), but I can tell you unequivocally one scenario in which you do not want to be racking up 200 strikeouts in a season…

Or you could just ask Arizona’s Mark Reynolds, who struck out for the 200th time in the second inning of the Diamondbacks contest against Joel Pineiro of the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday. That sets a new mark for futility that sluggers had somehow managed to avoid in the entire storied history of Major League Baseball. Let that soak in for a minute. Reynolds has done something that no other man in the history of the sport has ever done! When do you think the next time that could possibly happen again could be?

How does this weekend work for you?

Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard, who is known throughout the game for his mammoth home runs and frequent u-turns at home plate, sits on 196 punch-outs this season. So Reynolds may not be alone at the top, if you can call it that, for very long. Howard set the single season record last year, when he fanned an eye-popping 199 times in the regular season and tacked on seven more for good measure in the Division Series. One could make an argument that Howard’s 206 would be the actual mark for a calender year, done in only 147 total games.

Reynolds finished Thursday with 201 total strikeouts in his 148 games, so if the slight difference in his rate of futility and Howard’s is any consolation… nevermind. On a more serious note, I find it fascinating that hitters were able to avoid the mythical 200 K mark in a season for more than 130 years. As the game has evolved and power has been pushed to the forefront of seemingly everyone’s evaluation of a hitter’s “strength” and/or value to his club, this single season record has continued to climb.

The last 50 years has seen the most shuffling at the top of the list for the single season strike-out record holder. In fact, only three men held the slot from 1884 to 1955. The first man to hold the single-season record was Sam Wise, who set the bar at 104 during that 1884 season while playing for the Boston Beaneaters (now the Atlanta Braves). Gus Williams surpassed Wise in 1914 and went on to hold the record through the 1937 season after striking out 120 times for the St. Louis Browns. One year later, Williams was out of baseball.

Another Brave took the reigns in 1938. Vince DiMaggio, of the then-Boston Bees, would hold the mark of 134 until 1955. From there, eight men would emerge to set a new level swinging and missing over the next 53 years. Bobby Bonds and his 189 whiffs in 1969 set the mark for the longest period of time for any one player (34 years) before the torch was passed to Adam Dunn in 2004. Dunn notched a head-turning 195 punch-outs and held the record for a brief three year trial run. Then there was Howard and you know the rest.

It’s pretty clear that Howard is going to continue his shtick of long balls and long swings over the course of his career. In his 569 career games, Howard has accumulated 689 punch-outs. Most dead-ball era historians probably considered Babe Ruth‘s 3-strike exploits to be the pinnacle of decadence that flew in the face of fundamental baseball. Ruth went down on strikes 1,330 times and was the all-time record holder until Mickey Mantle took him off the hook in 1964. Howard is on pace to obliterate that number by the time his seventh full season is in the books. Oh, and Ruth’s career was 22 seasons long, by the way.

Who knows, Howard could end up taking a swing, and I mean that very literally, at Reggie Jackson and his record of 2,597.

Digest all that, while I try to rid myself of my penchant for parentheses in literary settings.

Till next time,

G-Mc

September 5, 2008

The need for speed…

Baseball is in a state of transition. There’s no doubt about it. The days when we would watch massive sluggers hitting tape measure blasts… while batting seventh in some cases, no less… will become much more rare. And in that respect, it restores the value of true sluggers. Bulked up baseball and PED (Performance Enhancing Drug) Era is becoming a thing of the past, and more than anything, I hope that means it will be safe to steal bases again.

Take a moment to look through the seasonal stolen base leaders during what may have been the “fastest” decade in the history of the game – the 1980s. Maybe I am partial because that’s the decade I grew up and consequently fell in love with baseball. Either way, there was a more complete brand of baseball that all started with speedy men at the top of the order that not only stole bases in mass quantities, but knew how to run the bases.

When a team is constantly relying on a 3-run homer to get themselves back in the game, with little or no other means of manufacturing runs, then that is a team that will live and die by that sword. I wouldn’t presume to say that is what is working against the Braves (who’ve hit just 118 homers going into Friday), but if there was ever a time to unleash “small ball” on the big stage, that time would be now.

Atlanta brought up speed merchant Josh Anderson late last month after a fantastic season with the Triple-A Richmond club (.314 with 42 steals in 121 games). This is a kid who sets a goal of 50 steals at the beginning of each season. Want to take a guess who the last Brave to steal 50 was? That would be Otis Nixon, setting the franchise record with 72 in 1991. The Braves have had just one player not named Nixon to steal more than 40 bases in the last 17 years. That coming in Rafael Furcal‘s ROY season of 2000.

It didn’t take Anderson long to start climbing the team leader-board in steals. With five already, he trails only Gregor Blanco‘s team-high 11 and Kelly Johnson‘s 10 for third on the team. How about a little more food for thought: The Braves have stolen 46 bases as a team this season… that would be one less than Anderson’s combined total of 47 entering Friday.

While I am not saying that speed will be a cure-all for the offensive struggles and all around ineptitudes that the Braves suffered through all season long. But a fusion of excitement that could get some pitchers distracted, put a few more men in scoring position and add a little bit of pressure to the opposition wouldn’t be a bad thing. And a team doesn’t have to have Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock or Tim Raines to accomplish this. Think how many times that just a run here or there would have made a difference in the one run ballgames.

The model that sticks out in my mind would be the Cardinals of the 80s. It was a team that took speed and the concept of manufacturing runs and turned it into a high art. It seems like everyone but Jack “The Ripper” Clark was capable of stealing 30 bags on that team. It also seemed like the defense of those St. Louis Clubs was second only to their speed in the all around game. I don’t think I am alone in suggesting that a return to this style could help rejuvinate and instantly change the way peoeple look at playing the game. If just one team proves successful in this venture, you will see no less than half a dozen copy-cat attempts in the 3 years to follow.

Come to think a little more about that decade, and it was full of guys like Brett Butler, Willie McGee, Willie Wilson, Steve Sax, Ozzie Smith, Dave Collins, Gary Pettis, Juan Samuel and even a young Ryne Sandberg who were stealing 40+ bases. And those are just the guys I am thinking of off the top of my head. Then there was this guy named Vince Coleman who took stealing to a higher level still.

On the other hand, you had Dale Murphy leading the league with 36 and 37 home runs. These days, the 40 stolen base club is far more exclusive than the 30 home run club. Maybe that will start to turn around. I’d love to see it. How about you?

Till next time,

G-Mc

August 24, 2008

Coming down the mountain…

Things have gone from bad to worse over the past two weeks in Bravesland. It just doesn’t seem like anything can go right for Atlanta, while nothing can wrong for the opposition. Friday’s shelling at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals punctuated what has been the roughest stretch of baseball for the Braves in recent memory.

The numbers don’t lie. For a team that was second in the National League and fifth in all of baseball with a 3.79 team ERA at the All-Star break, Atlanta’s hurlers have been battered around at a 6.27 clip in the second half. Over the past two weeks, the Braves have lost 11 of 12 games coming into Saturday and a primary reason for that has been that opponents will jump out to nice leads and never look back.

It would be somewhat unfair to not mention that Atlanta’s patchwork rotation was hardly what anyone thought would be taking the mound every fifth day. What if I told you in April that the only veteran in the Braves rotation by the last week in August will be Mike Hampton? Doubtful anyone would believe me. Heck, I have a hard time believing it myself.

Each game I come across an interesting little updated tidbit that is included in the Braves media notes. When Casey Kotchman missed Wednesday’s contest to return home and be with his ailing mother, he became the 20th different Brave to go on the DL or bereavement list. Total games lost combined? 1,018 (through Friday). Wow. Or “ouch” as the case may be.

Of course, the Braves really haven’t given anyone a reason to look over their shoulder late in the game lately either. Since the trade of Mark Teixeira, the Braves offense has seemed almost punch-less at times. Brian McCann and Chipper Jones have certainly done their part, but the 1-8 production simply has not been there this season.

The season-long struggles of Jeff Francouer underscore an outfield that has simply not turned in the kind of production that anyone in or around the organization has been accustomed to. With Andruw Jones and his decade-plus 30+ homers and 100 RBI’s now a thing of the past, the Braves have not been able to find a way to add some power production to their line-up. Matt Diaz has been out for three months; Mark Kotsay missed some time as well but has been a solid contributor for the most part.

Regardless, the Braves outfield has combined for just 25 homers, 163 RBI and a .252 batting average. By comparison, 2007’s numbers (.275-59-280) even had a career-worst year for Andruw factored in. Even with five more weeks, it’s doubtful that the gap will close between these two stat-lines. If you want to know a place where I would expect to see some money spent this off-season, then you could put the outfield right up there with the starting rotation.

I could go on and on, and on some more, about the loss of starters John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Tim Hudson to season-ending arm surgeries. I could, really. But at this point, you know this pat of the story. There’s no truckload of numbers that I could dump on your computer screen that would locate something that hasn’t been pointed out already…. Those losses hurt. And there is no team in baseball that could stand to lose three top-line starters and contend for any length of time. Unforeseen and unfortunate is all I can say for those injuries.

Jair Jurrjens has been a saving grace, without a doubt, but may start to show the effects of the largest workload of his career over his final starts. Just think of this season without the quality work of the studious Jurrjens, still honing his craft before being thrust to the front of a rotation in his just his first full season. He’s one to watch for the future.

The rest of the younger Braves hurlers took some serious lumps in rotation. Jo-Jo Reyes has been quality on the road (3.54 ERA in 48 innings), but has just a 1-4 record to show for it. Home has been another story. Turner Field has been a little shop of horrors for Reyes, who sports a 2-5 record and a 7.15 ERA in nine starts. There were high hopes that Reyes would be able to hold down a spot in the Atlanta rotation, but he may have been rushed through the system in 2007 and still feeling the effects this season. If Reyes ever gets command of his pitches and cuts down the walks, he could still be a big piece for Atlanta.

Righty starter Charlie Morton (3-8, 6.39 in 13 starts) has shown flashes of brilliance, followed up by forgettable shellings. Friday’s horrific start in St. Louis was wrought with walks (five in 1.1 innings), which seems to be a theme with some of the younger arms. Command has been at a premium, but like Reyes, Morton has the stuff to compete at the Major League level. The problem has been a penchant for walking hitters and dealing with too many base runners (1.64 WHIP) to be successful. Pitching in Turner Field has been hard on Morton as well, with an 0-6 record and an 8.18 ERA in seven starts.

We can talk about potential all day, and what players are capable of, but this season has not allowed the Braves to simply convert the numbers from predictions in the spring into success on the field. It never is quite that easy. Losing Teixeira, who rebuffed Atlanta’s contract extension offer earlier this year, cost the Braves a number of prospects who would be nice to have in the mix. But there is money to be spent on fixing some problem areas this off-season.

The free-agent crop isn’t exactly the world’s best, but there will be some players who could fill the voids left by age and injury in the Braves line-up and on the hill. Fodder for next time…

Till then,
G-Mc

August 18, 2008

Is this the end for Glavine?

Thursday’s start against the Chicago Cubs certainly isn’t the note the Tom Glavine would like his career to end on, but he may not have much of a say in the matter. After spending more than two months on the disabled list with an elbow injury, Glavine was placed right back on the shelf after allowing seven runs in just four innings. Effectively shut down for the season, Glavine will chart the course for the rest of his career with an MRI on the elbow on Wednesday in Birmingham, Ala.

If it did come to a close tomorrow, Glavine will have a plenitude of other, much sweeter memories to
look back on from his 22-year career. A five time 20-game winner with
more than 300 career victories and a pair of Cy Young Awards makes for
a pretty impressive resume. Throw in a World Series MVP in 1995 and 10
All-Star game selections and that gives the lefty quite a few places to
hang his hat.

With surgery coming as soon as Thursday, it will be
up to noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews to determine the full extent of
the injuries to Glavine’s left elbow. An MRI back in June revealed a
partially torn flexor tendon. Doctors advised Glavine that he could
undergo a potentially season-ending surgical procedure or attempt to
let the slight tear heal with time and rehab, thus allowing him the
opportunity to pitch this season. Should Andrews find that Glavine
needs Tommy John ligament replacement surgery, the 42-year old
left-hander has already made it known that he would retire instead.

Glavine and the entire Braves organization was hoping for a story-book ending to his brilliant career when they inked him to a one-year $8 million deal prior to the season. The addition of Glavine gave the Braves a formidable starting rotation that could boast a quartet of former 20-game winners. Unfortunately, it just wasn’t in the cards. One of the most durable starters for more than two decades, never making a single trip to the DL in 21 seasons, Glavine has been sidelined three times this year alone. Hardly what anyone had in mind.

Breaking in with Atlanta late in the 1987 season, Glavine suffered through some trying years before enjoying the sweet success of the 1990s. Braves fans seemed to forget his five year stint with the Mets from 2003-2007, and welcomed one of the franchise’s true legends back with open arms. It was a true tragedy that Glavine and longtime friend John Smoltz would manage just 18 starts between them this season.

While there is still the possibility that Glavine would pitch next season, he has gone on record as saying that it would only be for the Braves. It remains to be seen if that will be a part of the 2009 strategy, however. You can put Smoltz in that same boat.

If I had to look back over the career of Glavine and pick a highlight that stands out for me, then I’d probably go with his masterful eight inning one-hit performance in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series. For the all the critics that said the Braves vaunted starters couldn’t get it done in the post-season, Glavine’s mastery of one of baseball’s all-time best offenses (the ’95 Indians hit .291 as a team) was sweet redemption. We may never see a trio like Glavine, Smoltz and Greg Maddux ever again.

With both Glavine and Smoltz possibly calling it a career this off-season, it will mark the end of a great chapter in Braves lore. The once pitching-laden Braves are going to have to try to a new formula – or re-load the cast of characters at least. It was a beautiful run though. Pull out a few old baseball cards (or hit up the internet if you aren’t into that whole vintage approach) and take a stroll through the numbers of those three one night. Those were the good old days.

Till next time,

G-Mc