What a weekend…

You had a few things that were of particular note, in what was a milestone weekend for baseball. Alex Rodriguez belted his 500th career homer (off ex-Brave Kyle Davies nonetheless). Barry Bonds has etched his name alongside Henry Aaron as baseball’s all-time homerun king with 755. Finally, Tom Glavine finally notched career win number 300. We may never see that many records and milestones reached in 72-hours again.

Meanwhile, the pennant races heat up… and that is where this blog is going…

The trade deadline has now passed (at least the non-waiver variety) and now it’s time to make that stretch run over the final two months.

Atlanta goes into a very important road trip against the first place New York Mets and division rival Phillies in back-to-back 3-game series. While it’s hard to call these games must-wins, it is easy to see that Atlanta needs to down their arch-rivals in order to gain immediate ground in the standings. Atlanta goes out on the road trailing by five games to New York.

Mark Teixeira has seemingly energized the Braves line-up that had already shown an ability to put up runs in bunches. Of course, in the way that baseball works, when you add Teixeira, you lose Edgar Renteria to the 15-day DL and Andruw Jones to a cortizone shot in his left elbow. Jones should be back during the roadtrip, but Renteria could be out longer with a high-ankle sprain.

Atlanta had every right to say they boast the best line-up in the NL East with Teixeira on-board. Now rookie phenom Yunel Escobar, whom the Braves chose to hang on to during the trading frenzy, gets a chance to play everyday. Escobar is fast impressing his teammates with big hits and high-energy play.

Jeff Francoeur is red-hot, hitting .395 over his last 10 games and pushing his average up to .304 on the season following this most recent homestand. The production on the whole has far out-weighed the drop in homers from Jeff this season. The Atlanta right-fielder is on his way to his second consecutive 100+ RBI season, all by the age of 23-years old.

The only real question that Braves fans may be asking, is just how exactly the Braves rotation is going to fair over these final weeks. Tim Hudson has shown he is in top form, while John Smoltz contends that his shoulder irritation subsided in his past start against Colorado. The results weren’t pretty (9-2 loss in which Smoltz allowed 7 runs), but that is a promising report to know that Smoltz may be closer to 100%.

There is still a chance the Braves could deal for an arm during the waiver trade deadline. All players must be placed on waivers to be dealt, a 72-hour period in which any other team can claim him. At that point, the club that placed the player on waivers can either work a trade with the claiming club, allow the claiming club to have the player and assume the contract or they can pull him back off waivers – meaning he cannot again be placed there.

Atlanta is sure to monitor the wire and see what is out there – and at what cost. The Braves have parted ways with a lot of young talent to bring in Teixeira, Mahay, Dotel and Royce Ring. Giving up anymore will beg a long and thought out look at what they’ll get in return. Make no mistake, the Braves are in win-now-mode.

Till Next time,

G-Mc

Well the Braves rolled into San Fransisco on Monday and, despite all of the frenzied media coverage of Barry Bonds homerun chase, handed the Giants a 4-2 loss in the first of four. Bonds did not leave the yard, instead going 1-for-3 with a single and a walk in four trips to the plate.

The win marks a promising start to the seven game swing out West, giving Smoltz his 10th win of the season – a victory that could have and probably should have already occured. Run support for Smoltz has been hard to come by. Perhaps the question on everyone’s mind was how exactly Smoltz was going to go about pitching to Bonds.

The answer was clear – challenge him and try to get him out. The two have battled in the National League for 20 years and have a tremendous amount of respect for each other, exchanging a few words and a smile when Smoltz retired Bonds the last time they faced each other on the night.

"Somebody’s going to have to deal with giving it up," Smoltz said of homerun number 756. "I really don’t mind giving up eight homeruns to him – it’s only been really one game that’s cost me. But I’m not a dummy either, I’m not just going to lay it in there."

That’s pretty much the approach you have to have, I’d think. Someone is going to give up the homer, and become the next Al Downing. But in some ways, the pitcher who gives up the "record breaking homer" only joins a long list of pitchers who have surrendered a longball to a player like Hank Aaron, and now Barry Bonds – who has homered off 453 different hurlers since 1986.

Our old friend Craig McMurtry was the first to be victimized, on June 2, 1986. Bonds connected for his first career homer at Fulton County Stadium that day. And now as he closes in on the greatest record in all of professional sports, he has a chance to attain it against Aaron’s former team – the team for whom Hank shattered Babe Ruth’s record for in 1974. Call that baseball karma?

Tim Hudson gets the call tonight, and it’s likely – judging from his comments before taking off on the roadtrip – that Huddy will be taking the Smoltz approach as well. By the way, Smoltz has given up those eight homers to Bonds in 87 match-ups, but Hudson has allowed four in 26 plate appearances. Here’s a look at his numbers against the Atlanta starters for the rest of the series.

Bonds vs. Hudson:  .474 AVG (9-for-19) 1 2B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB (3 IBB), 0 K

Bonds vs. James:  .— (0-for0) 2 BB, 1 HBP

Buddy Carlyle has never faced Barry Bonds – neither have Tyler Yates, Peter Moylan, Wilfredo Ledezma or Jo-Jo Reyes. Oscar Villarreal has walked Bonds intentionally in both meetings while bullpen mates Chad Paronto and Rafael Soriano have given up singles to Bonds in their only match-ups. Closer Bob Wickman has only allowed Bonds a double in five at-bats, struck him out twice and has yet to walk him.

Chip and Pete said that scalper’s prices were reportedly hovering around $50 above face value for this series – a number that is sure to rise if Bonds belts 754 or 755 in the next day or two. I’m sure tickets from that point on – in San Fran for sure and likely elsewhere – will be outrageous.

Rumor of the week: On Sunday, ESPN’s Buster Olney and Pete Gammons made mention of a trade that would have seen the Braves sending Edgar Renteria to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for righty starter Jon Garland. It’s an intriguing prospect, and the first time I’ve heard Renteria’s name mention in trade speculation. One thing is for sure, starting pitching is going to be more expensive this season than ever before.

Till next time,

G-Mc

The Mets tried their best to give the division away this June. Unfortunately, there were no takers. Atlanta scuffled for the second straight June, while the Phillies made strides but still had to overcome their slow April start.

I think the National League East could prove to be one of the tightest division races in all of baseball. Come to think of it, all of the NL races could be fun to watch this September. No team has really run away with things to this point.

Just one road-trip separates the Braves from the season’s second half, when they will hope to have things solidified and add the final pieces via trade for the stretch run. That is assuming there is a trade, which almost everyone feels is more of a question of when than if.

Despite some clubhouse disagreements that usually never find their way into the mainstream media coverage, the Braves have other things to concern themselves with. Those post-game rants have been swept under the carpet with the promise that all is forgiven… of course, that being that the team wins. Losing has a way of getting to everyone in some way.

The puzzling slump of Andruw Jones gets the attention of every group of writers, broadcasters and other media types. There aren’t any answers to what exactly is to blame for this slump that has seemingly stretched over the first three months of the season. Jones is on track to have one of the worst seasons ever by a superstar player heading into a contract season in the prime of his career.

With their clean-up hitter batting .199 with 12 homers and 46 RBI, Atlanta has had to rely on a different cast of characters. Matt Diaz and Willie Harris have formed a formidable platoon in left-field. The two have combined to hit .356 overall, with combined totals of five homers, 29 RBI and 12 steals.

How about the exciting pair of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Yunel Escobar? Both made the jump from Mississippi and both have made contributions to the club. Saltalamacchia’s potential and success thus far convinced Atlanta to ship Brayan Pena back to Triple-A Richmond. Meanwhile, Escobar filled in capably for Chipper Jones while he was on the DL earlier in the month.

Other clubs are going to note the talents of both Escobar and Saltalamacchia and ask for them in return for Atlanta’s needs at the deadline. So then we have the age old question, "Trade the future for today, or not?"

John Schuerholz has certainly made some great deals to bring over key players by using the rich farm system. Remember the trio of Melvin Nieves, Vince Moore and Donnie Elliot going to San Diego for Fred McGriff? How about another trio that featured Chuck Thomas, Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer heading to Oakland for Tim Hudson? Even sending Nick Green to Tampa Bay for Jorge Sosa paid dividends in 2005.

There are a few pitchers that Atlanta might like to have back in mix at the back of the rotation. Adam Wainwright springs to mind. The bottom line is that Atlanta always seems to get top value for its prospects, even if they never blossom into full-blown stars.

So, I’ll leave you with a question. Should the Braves dip into the farm and trade a Saltalamacchia or an Escobar and others for a front-line starter or veteran slugger?

Please discuss, comment and debate. You can even argue if you like!

Till Next Time

Grant M-C

With all the concern about the back of the Braves rotation, there has not been much attention paid to the fact that Atlanta hitters are still trying to get in the groove, especially with Chipper Jones having been out of the lineup for a stretch of 19 games.

The Braves come into to the first of a three against the Indians having scored the fourth most runs of any team in the National League. They have even outscored the mighty Mets offense by a 302-297 mark. You would think that run-scoring is not the problem. But I found some rather interesting quirks about the Braves offensive attack that bears deeper look.

The 1-2 spot tandem of Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johnson have combined to score 88 of those 302 runs… that’s nearly a third for those keeping score at home. Johnson is on pace to score 114 runs this season and Renteria is on track for 110. Outstanding production from the middle infielders who set the table for Atlanta’s big sticks.

Using "on-pace" statistics is a far from 100% accurate look into the projected future of a player. It is a relative term. It does not take into account the fact that as players get hot or start a streak where production is far and away above the norm. Some hitters find themselves heating up with the weather, some explode out of the gate and still others do their best work down the stretch. I’ll get to all of this as we continue.

What it does show is the numbers that are in store if the current trend stretches on throughout the rest of the season. Take it for what it’s worth, the trend I’m about to point out is one that will need to improve as the season wears on. Now that I’ve placed a very thorough disclaimer, let’s continue.

Run scoring for several of the Braves middle of the order hitters is not on pace to match the levels reached in 2006 (in the case of Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann) or year in and year out (in the case of Andruw Jones).

With just 30 runs scored through his first 67 games, Francoeuer is on-pace for a 74 run season, coming on the heels of an 83 total in 2006. McCann is experiencing the most marked drop-off. Yes, as a catcher he will play less games than Francoeur or Andruw, but in 130 games last season, McCann scored 61 times. Having crossed the plate just 18 times through his first 55 contests of 2007, McCann is on-pace to score just 47 times.

Andruw has struggled mightely, but has still managed to keep himself "on-pace" for a 100+ RBI season. His run-scoring pace is also down considerably from last season, and his year-in-year-out norm. Andruw routinely scored between 90 and 100 runs a year. With only 30 through 66 games this year, he is "on-pace" for just 73. You can probably attribute a handful of the shortage to the fact McCann is on pace for just a total somewhere just north of 70, one year after driving in 93.

This may seem a bit out there, and bordering on having nothing better to do than crunch numbers on a Friday afternoon, but two of the Braves most productive players have combined to out-score Kelly Johnson (a player who was not even guaranteed a starting job this spring) by a mere three runs, 48-45. It’s at least a little distressing. 

It’s not that Francoeur or McCann are not doing their job by getting on base. The hitters that follow, the 7-8-9 spots in the Braves order have not come through this season. No one expects much out of the pitchers hitting in that ninth slot.

Craig Wilson was just a shell of the player he was for Pittsburgh, earning a quick release on May 17. That has left Scott Thorman to assume everyday duties at first base. In 24 games since Wilson’s release however, Thorman has hit just .171 with a pair of homers and six runs batted in.

The recent absence of Chipper Jones for nearly three weeks forced the Braves to shift their entire lineup. Renteria dropped down to routinely bat third, and the trio of Pete Orr, Chris Woodward and Yunel Escobar played the team’s games at third base from May 24 through June 14. During Chipper’s stint on the DL, Orr, Woodward and Escobar drove home four runs. That total does not exactly set the world on fire.

Having Chipper back is definitely going to pay dividends, but the Braves may take a look at the trade market to see what kind of bats are available. I won’t be venturing into fantasy baseball mode and throw out a bunch of names that may or may not be made available. We’ll all have to see what happens, when/if it happens. A little more balance in the offense would certainly go a long way.

Till next time,

G-Mc

Florida – 3 —- Cleveland – 2 FINAL (11 Innings)

I don’t remember what exactly I was doing at 21 years old, but it didn’t have anything to do with collecting game winning hits in the bottom of the 11th inning in Game 7 of the World Series. Edgar Renteria knows something about that, though.

It’s the ultimate, "Welcome to the big time, kid" moment. Despite putting together a career that has him on track to crack the vaunted 3,000 hit plateau around age 38, Renteria has toiled in relative obscurity since lining that single up the middle on a late October night in 1997.

Jimmy Leyland, on a visit to Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex as first year Tigers manager last spring, cracked a big smile and stopped his season outlook talk with reporters in mid-sentence upon sighting the rookie shortstop of his 1997 Florida Marlins club.

“Excuse me guys, this kid got a big hit for me one time,” joked Leyland as he walked over to embrace Renteria, who had become a seasoned veteran of 11-years (at the time).

His teams know what he can do. Maybe some of that October magic rubbed off that day, as Leyland went on to pilot a Tigers team that was supposed be somewhere in the midst of a rebuilding process to their first World Series appearance since 1984.

Think about the names that have been trumpeted during Renteria’s career as the premier shortstops in the game. There was the trinity of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra. Then Miguel Tejada came along, winning an MVP award himself. Renteria, 31, broke in less than a year after Ozzie Smith played his last game, and was around for Cal Ripken’s final years, albeit at third base.

These days, Renteria has a hard time asserting himself as the premier shorstop in the National League East. Most experts have been singing the praises of the New York’s Jose Reyes, Florida’s Hanley Ramirez and Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins. Conspicuous in his absence in the discussion is Renteria.

Perhaps there is still a lingering stigma from Renteria’s free agent contract with Boston two season’s ago. Unfortunately, he went to a city that is ready to crown new heroes as soon as they sign on the dotted line. They expect results, and why not? Committing 30 errors certainly didn’t champion the cause of "wait and see." Renteria is a two-time gold glove defender, so one could see that season as a complete anomoly in the scope of his 12-year career.

Atlanta has been pleased to add a quality bat that has been post-season tested to the top of the order when Rafael Furcal signed with the Dodgers. While his 40-steal days may be behind him, Renteria has been a key component of the Braves formula since his arrival. And it doesn’t take a 4-hit game in a 9-3 comeback win over the Central-leading Brewers to tell me that.

There’s no need to rattle of stats that will point to any of these four players as being "worse" than the next, because Renteria and Rollins, 28, are both different types of players than Reyes and/or Ramirez. If anything, I’d like to show that Renteria deserves his mention when you are talking about the NL East’s great shortstops. Really, the NL’s great shortstops.

Here is a closer look at the 2007 NL East shorstops (sans Felipe Lopez):

There is no doubt about the excitement that Reyes and Ramirez, both 23-years old, bring to the top of the order for their respective clubs. Both are having great years again in 2007, as you can easily see. Obviously, the best is more than likely yet to come from these exciting young shortstops.

The trio of Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins (though Philadelphia has batted him 3rd as well) all do most of their work in the lead-off spot for their respective teams, while Renteria hits second ordinarily. Table-setter would be a good word to describe all four. Take this breakdown of productivity a step further:

All four have contributed much to their respective causes. Top of the order production is key for any lineup to pile up victories. Here’s a look at each team’s record when their shortstop scores a run, and when he deoes not score:

Perhaps the most telling facet of Renteria’s career has been the way in which he has piled up hits in just 12 seasons. The Atlanta shortstop has 1,837 base knocks heading into today’s series opener in Chicago, and is on pace for 213 this season. Couple that with his season average of 161 hits per season, and Renteria looks to be on track for 3,000 hits somewhere around the 2013 season. That assumes that he stays healthy and productive… which is no sure thing, but nonetheless food for thought.

FYI: The youngest player to 3,000 was Ty Cobb. He collected his 3000th hit on August 19, 1921 at the tender age of 34.

That’s all for now, but the next time somebody talks about the best shortstop in the NL East – or the NL for that matter – don’t let them go without hearing the case for Edgar Renteria.

Till next time,

G-Mc